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Land prices are expected to stay the same in the new year. That is the sentiment from estate agents around the country as auctions wound down in early December. While Brexit and the beef crisis in 2019 did affect the land market, demand from the dairy and tillage industries brought some much needed confidence.
Clive Kavanagh
Jordan Auctioneers, Co Kildare
“There was never a year with so much negativity in agriculture, and yet land continued to sell, achieving strong prices and creating competitive bidding. A key factor of this is emotion and the fear that if you don’t buy now you might not get a chance again. The average field in Ireland gets sold once every 400 years outside of a family, compared to once every 70 years in France.
“For the third year running we have experienced far more transactions dependent on finance to complete. Of our sales this year, approximately 80% were subject to lending facilities. In the Celtic Tiger years this number would have been the opposite with 80% cash-based.
“Looking forward to 2020 we would envisage a similar year to that just gone with continued uncertainty and possible negative sentiment in agricultural circles, but with trade continuing regardless and no major drop in prices.
“Key fundamentals remain including strength of the local market, active adjoining neighbours looking to acquire additional land and the quality of the property on offer.”
Ernest Forde
Hodnett Forde, Clonakilty, Co Cork
“With the good milk price prospects, we would expect land prices to hold well. I don’t really expect them to go up. Hopefully the beef crisis will be sorted soon. Dairy is what’s driving land price, tillage did quite well in 2019 and those guys are positive at the moment, that will hold to next year. When we talk to the banks they aren’t too concerned about Brexit at the moment. The milk business seems to be planning for it pretty well and the delay has helped.”
Martin O’Connor
DNG, Moycullen, Co Galway
“The beef prices have been killing us, but land is land. If the farmers don’t buy it, others will buy it. Land will always sell. Price is holding its own. I get two or three enquiries a week from young trained farmers who are working as well.
“The outlook is good, sheep prices are holding their own so anyone who can buy hill land is going after it. A lot of it is driven by dairy farmers looking for more land. We need to get a decision on Brexit, people will thaw out and things will get back to normal. It could be into May before we see a bit of prosperity again.”
Eoin Dillon
REA Eoin Dillon, Nenagh, Co Tipperary
“There doesn’t seem to be that much supply of land coming, it has been very tight in the last few years. Confidence in buying land not as strong as it was. Dairy farmers seem to be preferring to rent land rather than buy. I don’t see supply improving in 2020, I would have expected prices to have gone back in 2019 and it hasn’t done that.
“Bank lending to farmers is not as strong as it was a few years ago. If someone doesn’t have an out farm to sell they won’t be able to buy 100ac.”
John Dawson
REA Dawson Tullow, Co Carlow
“We are going to be in the year of CAP reform in 2020 which may or not have an effect. Right now we are dealing with a scarcity of fresh land coming on the market.
“We’ve reached a point where we set land for five years, so there are farmers still looking for land but it’s unavailable. I’m optimistic that land will hold its value in 2020. 2019 was not a great year but the scarcity and the good land in our area has helped land prices to hold.”
Gordon Cobbe
GVM Property Sales, Tullamore, Co Offaly
“The rental market will be as strong as ever in 2020 even though more land will probably come available. The dairy sector is still expanding and nitrates will become an issue so farmers will be on the hunt for land.
“Sales wise, so long as Brexit goes steady I hope the land market goes steady next year and maybe even bounce back a little. Brexit has caused uncertainty and people are less confident about spending large amounts of money. There’s more caution being exercised. But for small parcels this year was still a great trade, places are being turned around in six to eight weeks.”
Richard Ryan
GVM Auctioneers, Kilmallock, Co Limerick
“Brexit is making people a little bit cautious. But in a lot of cases when land comes up it can be a once in a lifetime opportunity. I don’t see land prices increasing in 2020 but I think the market has firmed up a bit and the outlook will be OK. Land will still sell, they aren’t making any more of it.”
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