From a general election that has raised more questions than answers comes one very clear message: a government must not only manage the economy but also societal challenges.

Fine Gael’s delivery on the economy over the past nine years was simply washed away by a wave of voters who viewed the party as having failed to deliver for large swathes of society, particularly in the areas of housing, health, childcare and transport.

It was this same wave of voters who turned in huge numbers to Sinn Féin. By identifying early in the election a number of the real issues facing voters and keeping a laser-like focus on these throughout the campaign, the party created a powerful movement demanding change – its success best measured by the fact that a number of its poll-topping candidates struggled to get any traction in recent local elections.

Much of the commentary in relation to the groundswell in support for Sinn Féin has focused on the young urban dweller, many of whom find themselves in a rental trap with monthly payments well above equivalent mortgage repayments on similar type properties. But it is notable the extent to which the party also made major gains throughout rural Ireland. Again, with their finger on the pulse, the Sinn Féin message on tackling monopolies in the beef sector and flattening CAP payments appealed to the many farmers that felt ignored by the outgoing government.

Attention now turns to the formation of the next government. While the necessary optics will delay proceedings, the most likely outcome would appear to be a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition with the Green Party used as a buffer between the two.

The combination is painting a worrying picture for many farmers. On CAP, both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are in favour of a further flattening of farm payments. Sinn Féin want a scenario where the basic payment is equal across all farms with a front-loaded element on smaller farms.

Consequence for agriculture

The consequences of such a move on the output of the agricultural sector and processing employment would be significant.

Tillage farmers alongside the more intensive and higher output beef and sheep farmers would see their incomes raided to increase support to those on lower payments.

While Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are committed to a €200 per cow payment, it would only be paid on the first 15 to 20 cows

In such a scenario, IFA president Tim Cullinan will have a battle on his hands to deliver on a commitment to farmers of upwards only convergence – where those on lower payments are brought up through increased funding rather than taking money from farmers with larger payments.

The scatter-gun approach to farmer supports by both parties extends to the suckler sector. While both are committed to a €200 per cow payment, it would only be paid on the first 15 to 20 cows – indicating that both parties see the future of suckling as small, part-time units. The reality is that regardless of herd size, keeping a suckler cow without support is unprofitable.

This raises the question as to the commitment of a Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Green coalition to productive agriculture – particularly in relation to climate change policy and protecting the nitrates derogation.

At the recent IFA annual general meeting, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan made clear that he does not support the nitrates derogation, wants a CAP on the national suckler herd and further restrictions placed on live exports.

With a sympathetic ear from Sinn Féin possible on many of these issues, there is a real concern that Fianna Fáil could have to concede ground when agreeing a programme for government. Already there are reports of Sinn Féin being prepared to concede on a carbon tax in a bid to secure Green support.

Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the election results, there has been talk of a seismic and irreversible change in the Irish political landscape. However, we only have to look at what has played out in farm politics in recent months to realise that creating a groundswell of support is the easy step. By far the hardest part is delivering on the popular promises on which the support was built – this is the real challenge that now lies in wait for Sinn Féin.

This week's cartoon

\ Jim Cogan

Environment: farmers should focus on accessing green deal funding

Comments made this week by EU director of climate strategy Dr Artur Runge-Metzger at an Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) briefing in Dublin are significant in the context of where agriculture is positioned in the climate change debate.

There is no doubt that among senior officials and policy-makers that the narrative is slowly starting to change – from one focused solely on the negative contribution of agricultural emissions to one that now recognises the positive role the sector plays in creating carbon sinks and the further potential to lock away more carbon in our soils.

Dr Artur Runge-Metzger, director of DG Climate.

Runge-Metzger is clear that farmers who remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in soils, hedge rows or trees should be financially rewarded – only by doing this will the EU achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

Clearly there is a need for farm organisations across the EU to come together to develop this strategy. One of the key objectives must be to position farmers at the centre of the €100bn Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) announced as part of the EU green deal. Doing so would allow additional environmental measures be funded through the JTM and not through a reduced CAP budget.

The option of securing support from the JTM for the restructuring of our national suckler herd should be explored.

Beef: changes to quality assurance residency a positive for farmers

The move this week by Dawn Meats to reduce the residency period required on quality assured (QA) stock is a positive development.

As Adam Woods reports this week, farmers buying QA stock through the mart will now only have to hold them for 30 days as opposed to 60 days. The move should give QA farmers more options when marketing forward cattle, allowing large-scale finishers who can often extract higher prices from the market purchase these short-keep cattle.

It should also provide an opportunity to pass a percentage of the QA-dependent in-spec bonus back to store producers.

Ultimately, the challenge is to develop a financial mechanism that provides an incentive to all farmers in the supply chain to become quality assured.

Dairy: record milk output shows capability of co-op structure

In 2019, Irish dairy farmers produced 7.95bn litres of milk, which is up 400m litres on the previous 12 months.

Since the abolition of quotas, the Irish milk pool has swelled by a massive 46% – or 2.5bn litres. It is a phenomenal achievement and while there have been some growing pains, the expansion of the sector has boosted economic prosperity both on farms and across many rural towns and villages.

While often challenged, we should not lose sight of the pivotal role that the farmer-owned co-op structure has played in facilitating the growth opportunity – both in terms of the processing capacity available on these shores and developing new markets further afield.

Appointment: agribusiness editor

We are delighted to announce the appointment of Lorcan Allen to the role of agribusiness editor. Since joining the Irish Farmers Journal in 2014, Lorcan, who hails from a suckler farm in Westmeath, has helped developed our coverage and has led a number of our key investigative projects. We wish him every success in the role.