While the protests at factories and legal action have dominated the news in Irish agriculture, it was also a tumultuous week in Westminster as well.

Ordinarily, British party politics has no more than a passing interest for us but when the issue is Brexit, it has potentially as great a negative impact on Irish agriculture as anything that has happened in the past century.

Basically, the UK government, headed by Boris Johnson as prime minister, wants to suspend parliament for a prolonged period in September and October in order to make the process of getting Brexit implemented as smooth as possible.

Parliament

Normally, the government of the day is formed by the party or coalition with the most members in parliament, effectively meaning that the PM and government controls parliament as well.

However, as the last election in Ireland showed, when the Government doesn’t have a majority of MPs/TDs, then they have to govern with the good will of parliament.

The confidence and supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil keeps the Government in office in Dublin, but in Westminster, Brexit has shattered party loyalties, with the biggest party, the Conservatives, seriously divided.

The prime minister is of a view that there is a huge risk parliament will have enough numbers to block Brexit, hence his decision to close it.

Westminster

The political crisis in Westminster is a timely reminder of how close we are to a no-deal Brexit with all its consequences for Irish agriculture.

As reported in our northern edition this week, the arable or tillage sector and growers were briefed by the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (DAERA) and it is a bleak analysis. Basically, irrespective of the tariff position, north-south exports would stop immediately because of certification issues.

Other sectors will receive this briefing next week and it is certain to be every bit as bleak. If there is a no-deal Brexit, north-south trade will cease immediately with serious consequences particularly for milk and sheep producers.

UK Brexit policy

So far, the UK position is that it will be keeping the Irish border open, which should enable trade from south to north continue as before.

Where the hit will come for Irish farmers is particularly in the beef sector, where the UK is set to create a 230,000t all-comers beef import quota.

Farmers need a signal that the fine words of support have something tangible behind them

This is two and a half times the size of the Mercosur quota offered to the EU27 and as the UK Quota will be open to Mercosur countries as well as former EU suppliers, the base price for beef will be set at Brazilian or Argentinian levels of €2.25/kg equivalent.

We can expect Irish and UK supplies to obtain a premium but any market premium will be built on this low base and the UK beef price will be decimated.

Impact outside beef

It would also damage our cheese exports, though it will be a more manageable tariff and pigmeat is also seriously exposed to the UK market with over half our exports going there in 2018.

However, with the surge in demand from China arising from African swine fever, there are alternative markets at present.

Sheep will be relatively unhindered south of the border because the UK is effectively excluded from the EU27 but in turn this wrecks the market south of the border for northern producers, who export almost half their lambs south each year for processing.

Danger

The great danger with Brexit is that with two false alarms earlier in the year we may think something will work out. The moves by the British Government this week should be a very real reminder that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is increasing by the day and farmers need a signal that the fine words of support have something tangible behind them.