The next UN climate summit will be held in Glasgow commencing on 9 November, the week after the US presidential election. If Trump loses there is every chance that this meeting, the 26th such summit, will finally see more decisive international action on climate change. Even if it turns out to be another inconclusive gathering, serious policy changes are coming and the longer they are delayed the more disruptive they will be.

A critical issue is the decarbonisation of the electricity industry

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events is finally persuading the general public around the world that politicians have been doing too little and that the costs of climate action will rise the longer action is delayed.

Governments which decline to act will lose voter support, even in the US.

A critical issue is the decarbonisation of the electricity industry. The world demand for electrical energy has been growing strongly, especially in countries catching up on the living standards of the more developed regions.

Fossil fuel combustion for transport and home heating needs to be replaced with electrical energy via electric cars and heat pumps, adding further to demand.

Emissions volume

Unless the rising demand for electricity can be met from renewables or low-carbon sources, it will be very difficult to make inroads into the volume of emissions. There is no point converting to electric cars if the power source continues to include too much coal-fired generation.

There is plentiful supply and for many developing countries coal is the cheapest option to meet rising demand

According to the International Energy Agency, coal remains the fuel of choice for power generation.

There is plentiful supply and for many developing countries coal is the cheapest option to meet rising demand. But it has the highest emissions and its use will have to be phased out eventually.

This is already happening in Europe where plants are being closed and in North America, where coal is losing out to natural gas, cheaper because of the fracking boom. But dozens of coal plants are being constructed in Asia and older, and less efficient, plants are not being closed quickly enough. See Figure 1.

There are opportunities for more hydro generation in some countries, but the more practical short-term option is natural gas, a fossil fuel but with roughly half the per-unit emissions of coal.

Unfortunately, some of the fast-growing countries do not have many domestic gas fields and long-distance gas transportation is costly, hence the popularity of coal in countries such as China.

Eventually, coal will have to be phased out (plants being built today could have a technical life of up to 40 years) and replaced by zero-emission technologies, renewables or nuclear.

Nuclear

Despite generous subsidies, wind and solar have just 7% of the world’s power generation market and there are limits to the safe reliance on interruptible technologies. Wind and solar are likely to continue their growth but the role of nuclear will also be important.

The pace of new construction has recently been slow in the developed world

There are about 450 nuclear plants operating around the world, many of them dating from the 1970s and 1980s and near the end of their useful lives.

The pace of new construction has recently been slow in the developed world and there have been some horrendous delays and cost overruns. But there is an extensive construction programme in China and costs there seem to be better contained.

The traditional nuclear station has been a single, large one-off unit, around 1000 MWs or roughly the size of the Moneypoint coal station, the largest in Ireland

At present, there is little commercial appetite for nuclear in Europe or North America given the intimidating capital costs. Two large nuclear units, in Finland and in France, have run so far over budget that investors are running scared.

The traditional nuclear station has been a single, large one-off unit, around 1000 MWs or roughly the size of the Moneypoint coal station, the largest in Ireland. These are bespoke designs built on site.

There is considerable excitement in the nuclear industry about the development of smaller modular units, perhaps around 300 MWs and comparable in size to the gas stations in Ireland.

Political parties around Europe, and not just green parties, have had a success they may regret in creating excessive fear of nuclear powerThese units could be built off site and the companies claim that they will be cheaper, but actual commercial availability often lags behind the hype.

Political parties around Europe, and not just green parties, have had a success they may regret in creating excessive fear of nuclear power.

A perfectly fine nuclear station near Karlsruhe in Germany closed on 31 December, 15 years short of its natural decommissioning date, part of the German government’s plan to phase out nuclear power altogether.

The same government presides over an electricity industry almost 40% reliant on coal. Germany is phasing out coal too, but it sure won’t be any easier with the premature closure of nuclear units.

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