Housing policy is already a dominant theme in the general election and the Government stands accused of failure. But everyone knows that it will take time to fix the problems of housing affordability and homelessness and the party manifestos are not to hand at the time of writing.

Sight unseen, this is what to fear, and what to welcome, when they are released.

The housing affordability crisis is invariably described as national, rather than confined, as it is, largely to the greater Dublin area and the main provincial cities and “solutions” are offered to a problem that has been poorly defined.

Since wages and salaries in Ireland do not vary much across the country, there is an uneven incidence of affordability problems

Outside the urban centres, as a glance at daft.ie or myhome.ie will confirm, households on average incomes can still aspire to home ownership, or can afford to rent, even after the market recovery of the last few years.

Since wages and salaries in Ireland do not vary much across the country, there is an uneven incidence of affordability problems. Supply matches demand in most areas but there has been a colossal failure in the cities, especially in Dublin.

These constraints are the handiwork of political parties in thrall to the owner-occupier vote and unwilling to see prices fall

Identical houses in the outer suburbs of Dublin cost twice the price, or even three times the price, of similar properties in many rural counties. The same differential applies in the rental market. Any manifesto which fails to make this distinction is dodging an issue that the politicians are unwilling to face.

It is convenient to pretend that the problem is uniform across the country since this deflects attention from its principal source, the constraints on supply in high-demand areas caused by the operation of the local authority zoning and planning process. These constraints are the handiwork of political parties in thrall to the owner-occupier vote and unwilling to see prices fall.

Gimmicks

There will be gimmicks on offer which would expand demand rather than supply and make the problem worse, such as looser mortgage lending rules or grants to those assembling the money for a down-payment. Meanwhile, politicians of all parties routinely oppose residential development on the derelict sites which pockmark the cities, or on the rolling prairies of empty land which surround them. Any excuse will do.

Developments have been successfully opposed on the grounds of species protection, habitat conservation and even excessive height in the case of one four-story apartment proposal in an area of Dublin which already contains numerous taller buildings.

In an unusual outbreak of candour, politicians in one Dublin suburb opposed a development on the explicit basis that it would reduce prices in the area. The same politicians are, of course, devoted to the cause of affordable housing.

The preference for gimmicks, rather than facing the music on zoning and planning, unites Irish political parties of all ideological flavours

Another constant refrain is rent control. Legislating for lower rents, while doing nothing about the supply/demand imbalance, makes as much sense as legislating for cheaper coffee. The beneficiaries of rent control are the sitting tenants and lower rents for unavailable properties are no use to those excluded from the market.

The preference for gimmicks, rather than facing the music on zoning and planning, unites Irish political parties of all ideological flavours.

This continuing failure has the damaging side effect of encouraging long-distance commuting as people move out from the cities in search of affordable homes, a double disaster. The one policy on which the political parties seem to agree is the construction of more public housing on publicly owned land. But the ownership of the land is irrelevant and many of the most suitable sites do not belong to public authorities. There have already been planning refusals for public housing schemes and there will be more.

It is convenient to pretend that the problem is uniform across the country since this deflects attention from its principal source

Waiting lists for public housing have ballooned, which is not surprising given the large subsidies available. But these lists in many areas include categories of people who would rent or buy in the private market if affordability could be restored. The public housing stock is also inadequate due to the practice of selling off units to tenants at bargain prices, a policy which should surely stay suspended in current circumstances.

Affordability

An acknowledgment that the housing affordability problem is concentrated in a small number of urban areas would be welcome from all parties. It would also be welcome if they could answer the following question: do you sincerely wish to see prices fall to affordable levels, and over what time horizon?

Especially in the low-density sprawl around Dublin, current prices are well beyond what first-time buyers can borrow or should be allowed to borrow

One could be forgiven for believing that some politicians expect affordability to be magically achieved at current prices.

Especially in the low-density sprawl around Dublin, current prices are well beyond what first-time buyers can borrow or should be allowed to borrow.

Unless the manifestos contain serious commitments about zoning and planning, a whole generation of would-be owner-occupiers is destined to crowd the rental market indefinitely, inching up the waiting list for public housing if it is ever built. Or commuting through the unplanned green belt of unzoned land.

Read more

Colm McCarthy : the power of social networks

Editorial: next Government must tackle economic divide