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Over the last few weeks, the NI dairy industry has put forward a strong case explaining why a no-deal Brexit would be disastrous for the sector. Fronting up this week was the Dairy Council chief Mike Johnson, who has estimated that EU tariffs on milk and milk products going to the EU would cost £320m annually, and could lead to a 10p/l drop in the price paid to farmers. In addition, there is a 600m-litre shortfall in processing capacity in NI, so if milk cannot cross the Irish border after Brexit, a proportion of it ends up in a slurry tank.
Whether this doomsday scenario comes to pass all depends on politicians, but even if there is a Brexit extension followed by a UK general election, the threat of a no-deal exit at some point in the near future has not gone away.
Government ministers are well aware, in particular, of the potential plight of the UK sheep sector and the NI dairy industry
A similar doomsday scenario also hangs over the sheep sector, while other sectors such as beef, poultry meat and eggs could also face extremely challenging market conditions in a no-deal outcome.
But it should be remembered that the UK government has repeatedly said that it will step in to support farmer incomes where necessary.
Government ministers are well aware, in particular, of the potential plight of the UK sheep sector and the NI dairy industry.
However, relying on a government bailout is not where anyone wants to be. The fact that ministers have ignored intense lobbying on the need to change proposed UK no-deal tariffs does not bode well for the future.
Expect some big infrastructure-type projects in NI
That said, it is increasingly clear that if the Tories get back into power and opt for a no-deal, they intend on cutting taxes and easing the pressure on public finances, in an effort to stimulate the economy.
Expect some big infrastructure-type projects in NI, and maybe even grants for dairy and lamb processing.
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