Rising pig prices reflect a deficit in supply that will increase further next year because of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and neighbouring Asian countries. USDA forecast that Chinese pig meat production will fall to 34m tonnes in 2020 compared with 54m tonnes in 2018. This drop of 20m tonnes is more than twice the total pig meat (8.4m tonnes) that was traded on world markets in 2018.

This has meant Chinese imports are hoovering up all available supply that is being traded globally, driving grade E pig prices to almost 187c/kg last week, up 35% since this time last year, according to a Bord Bia source.

Global markets

The fall out of China needing to import more pig meat than is available on global markets has meant a surge in demand for other proteins. Poultry meat is the first beneficiary while beef import demand had being growing at a rapid rate in China from long before the ASF crisis. Imports of beef will reach 1.5m tonnes in 2019 compared to 1m last year.

Sheep meat too is experiencing a surge in demand from China and notably this is the first year that New Zealand has sold more sheep meat to China than it has to the EU.

No doubt the Chinese will rebuild, but it will take some time and in the meantime they will drive huge demand for all meat proteins for the remainder of this year and into 2020 as well.