Global grain prices continue to edge up slowly on the back of decreasing yield expectation from the US maize crop. This is partly to do with the late planting into ground that had been saturated, late maturity and the risk of early frost. Wheat harvest in Canada is also late.

While the impact of late planting remains a concern, the fact that the crop is quite late maturing means that the risk from an early frost is significant and this is now driving price. Crops that fail to fill fully lose yield potential and that could be very significant across 82 million acres. Heavy rain is again impacting on parts of the US, with visible damage to transport infrastructure, as well as delayed harvesting.

French maize yields are also lower than anticipated and dryness in South America is impacting planting there.

And while there is more than enough wheat in Europe, global output expectations continue to be impacted downwards by lower numbers in the southern hemisphere.

These changing factors have moved sentiment for maize and wheat from bearish to mildly bullish, resulting in rising prices. Rape prices continue to edge up also.

Native prices are generally stronger in this firmer market. October/November is now spot, with wheat between €178 and €180/t depending on the hour, and barley around €168/t. Pushing out to May, wheat is now around €185/t with barley around €175/t. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty hinging around Brexit.