The popularity of poultry meat with EU consumers has been increasing for several decades and is forecast to continue this pattern over the next decade, according to the EU market outlook report.

Consumption across the EU 28 has grown from 11m tonnes in 2005 to 15m tonnes in 2018, an increase of 230,000t per year.

Per-capita consumption of poultry meat is forecast to reach 26.2kg per person annually in 2030, according to the same report.

Popularity of chicken with EU consumers continues to increase.

The EU produces 15m tonnes of poultry meat annually and imported over 813,000t of poultry meat in 2018, while exporting almost 1.8m tonnes.

Production is increasing annually and the 15m tonnes produced in 2018 represents an increase of over 3m tonnes per year since 2010

This trade reflects EU consumers’ preference for breast meat, meaning that it is imported to meet demand while dark or leg meat is exported.

Production is increasing annually and the 15m tonnes produced in 2018 represents an increase of over 3m tonnes per year since 2010.

The EU market outlook for the next decade is for continued growth with production forecast to reach 16.5m tonnes by 2030, a 5% increase on current levels (European Commission).

EU imports

Currently, the EU imports over 800,000t of poultry meat annually, with the biggest suppliers of EU imports being Thailand on 312,000t and Brazil on 302,000t, which represents three quarters of EU poultry meat imports in 2018.

Other suppliers include Ukraine which exported 99,000t of poultry meat to the EU in 2018 with Chile supplying 36,000t. While still a huge supplier, Brazil has declined as a supplier of poultry meat to the EU in recent years. In 2015, Brazil exported over 500,000t of poultry meat to the EU, representing 57% of EU imports.

There was disruption to supply from Brazil following “Operation Weak Flesh” in March 2017

This volume has been declining annually and at 302,000t, Brazil accounted for 38% of EU imports in 2018. There was disruption to supply from Brazil following “Operation Weak Flesh” in March 2017 when unfit product being certified by officials led to a restriction of supply.

Chicken is used for formal meals as well as casual dining.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has been increasing in importance as a supplier, now supplying more than double the 42,500t it exported to the EU in 2015.

The trade deal agreed between the EU and Mercosur in June this year has made provision for a 180,000t tariff-free quota for supplies from the South American countries to the EU, phased in over five years if the deal is approved.

ASF impact

As well as driving a massive expansion in Chinese poultry meat production, demand from China for imports is also increasing rapidly as is the case with other meats as well. In 2015, it imported 268,000t which increased to 342,000t in 2018. It is forecast by the USDA to jump to 625,000t in 2019 and increase again to 750,000t next year with Brazil and Thailand the big suppliers.

Consumption in China is expected to jump by over 2m tonnes in 2020 to 16.1m tonnes as poultry meat substitutes for pigmeat.

Thailand is forecast to export over 1m tonnes for the first time next year

This puts China just behind the US, which will consume just under 17m tonnes in 2020.

Brazil is the world’s biggest exporter, forecasted at 4m tonnes in 2020 followed by the US which is predicted to export 3.2m tonnes of poultry meat next year.

There may be just a few hundred farmers involved in poultry production but they sustain 6,000 jobs in the processing sector. \ Philip Doyle

Thailand is forecast to export over 1m tonnes for the first time next year.

Brazil’s big export markets are China, the EU and Russia, while the US’s biggest export markets are Mexico and Philippines.

EU exports

Total EU exports are also increasing annually, up 300,000t in 2018 from the 1.5m tonnes exported in 2015. EU poultry meat exports are spread across several countries predominantly in Asia and Africa.

Philippines was the single biggest market in 2018, taking 169,000t, and has increased further this year taking 165,000t from January to September. Hong Kong is an important market for EU exports, taking just under 128,000t in 2018.

EU average prices are currently €1.84/kg and prices have traded in the range between €1.75/kg and €1.90/kg.

Global trends

Poultry meat production and consumption is also increasing year on year, globally. According to the USDA foreign agricultural service (FAS), production globally will increase to 103.5m tonnes in 2020 – up from 91.3m tonnes in 2015.

The US is the biggest producer at just under 20m tonnes in 2019, followed by China at 15.8m tonnes and Brazil on 13.6m tonnes. It also forecasts Chinese production to increase a further 2m tonnes in 2020, half the total global increase.

Around 157,000t of poultry meat was produced in 2018

This is driven by huge demand caused by the deficit in supply of pigmeat as a result of African swine fever (ASF) wiping out half the pig herd.

Around 157,000t of poultry meat was produced in 2018, according to CSO figures. Peter Duggan of Bord Bia reports

Bord Bia is forecasting that poultry production will rise by around 8% to 170,000t for 2019.

Ireland is around 89% self-sufficient in terms of poultry output. There is still a significant volume of chicken imported in the form of fillets to make up the balance. The majority of this imported product is consumed in the foodservice or quick-service channel. Irish per-capita consumption of chicken stood at around 36kg for 2018. Like pigmeat, there are relatively small number of farmers with 427 members in the Poultry Products Quality Assurance Scheme but these provide the raw material that support around 6,000 jobs in the sector.

A lot of the product that is shipped to the UK is often consolidated and then moved to international markets

In terms of export destinations, CSO figures point to the UK being our most important market outlet taking 67% of Irish exports in 2018 with South Africa the second most important market, taking 11% of Irish exports.

A lot of the product that is shipped to the UK is often consolidated and then moved to international markets.

Ireland is in the process of securing access to China for which the EU has allocated a €3.8m promotion fund (along with Mexico).

The Chinese market will be crucial to the poultry industry in terms of sustaining positive growth that has been evident over the last few years, especially for items such as chicken feet and offal where this market provides some of the best returns.

The emphasis for poultry meat activity during year one will be around securing market access through Knowledge Transfer programmes where key Chinese officials will be invited to visit Ireland

Developing the Chinese market for Irish poultry will start in early 2020, targeting trade professionals, market influencers, key decision-makers and media.

The emphasis for poultry meat activity during year one will be around securing market access through Knowledge Transfer programmes where key Chinese officials will be invited to visit Ireland with the view of inspecting some of our poultry meat export plants.

For the last two years of the programme, the emphasis will switch to trade-related activity such as trade show participation, trade and technical seminar activity, inward buyer and journalist visits to build the profile of the Irish poultry industry.

This trade-related activity will be supported by the generation of marketing material collateral that will also be used on new digital and social media platforms.