The total EU area of oilseeds, permanent grassland and permanent crops is set to decline by 2030, according to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook Report published today.

However, the use of the total land base for cereals, protein crops and fodder is expected to grow. This, combined with bigger yields, could result in an overall increase in production. The report also shows that the demand for protein crops is set to grow substantially.

Cereals

The EU market for cereals is set to grow, with further shifts between products and increasing demand for feed and industrial uses.

Wheat and maize growing areas are projected to expand. However, this will occur at the expense of other cereals. Total EU cereal production could reach 320m tonnes (mt) by 2030.

More competition from the other grain-producing regions, such as the Black Sea, may lead to a moderate increase of EU exports.

Protein crops

The strong growth in EU production of protein crops is projected to continue and reach 6.3mt in the medium term. The main drivers will be the strong demand for plant protein products and for more locally produced protein sources for feed purposes.

The demand for plant-based protein sources for human consumption is also expected to grow. The soya bean area could show the most dynamic land use change, increasing by 5% in 2030.

The increase in soya bean demand for human consumption could be sourced from increased EU production and a growing share of imported soya would be used for food purposes rather than feed.

Similarly, the pulses area would increase due to higher human consumption. The EU soya bean price could increase by as much as 19% due to this increased demand, while the producer price of pulses remains stable.

This projected shift from animal- to plant-based protein sources could generate potential benefits for the climate and the environment

The report also outlines that this projected shift from animal- to plant-based protein sources could generate potential benefits for the climate and the environment.

For instance, the carbon footprint of the EU agricultural sector would be reduced by 6% (22mt CO2 eq) in 2030 compared to the baseline through lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

Oilseeds

A slight decrease in EU area is projected for oilseeds. The rapeseed area is expected to continue its decline, though at a slower pace, thanks to a steady demand for rape meal and the agronomic value of rape in crop rotation systems.

Total EU production of oilseeds could remain stable in the medium term.

The increase in demand for oilseed crushing is due to be met by additional imports, while the volume of imported meals could decline.

Sugar

The EU sugar area is expected to stabilise in the medium term and EU production could be around 18.5mt by 2030.

The declining consumption of sugar is expected to be only partially substituted by a higher use of isoglucose in processed food.

The increase of other sugar uses (eg industrial uses) will not offset this decline and the EU sugar sector will rely on opportunities in the world market.

Feed demand

Demand for feed (from arable crops, fodder and pasture) is increasingly driven by consumers’ demands on farming practices.

Feed differentiation from locally-produced, GM-free and organic crops will increase domestic feed production, despite mixed trends in animal production.

Total feed use could reach 260mt in the medium term, driven by increased inclusion of pulses and strong growth in soya bean meals.

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