The influence of global trade is more apparent now in the pig industry than ever before. As industry experts try to gauge the full impact and extent of the African swine fever (ASF) on Chinese sow numbers, pigmeat scarcity continues to bite. The latest twist in the market has been the effect of the coronavirus outbreak on Chinese consumption.

Experts suggest that pigmeat scarcity has yet to reach its lowest point. The upside for Irish pig farmers and the industry surrounding it, is that the price of pigmeat has increased substantially on Irish pig farms.

Price has lifted from €1.30/kg to €2/kg in the space of 12 months. It means those farmers with 500 sows and the best technical efficiency are set to make a profit of about €800 per sow in 2020. The revenue increase comes on the back of leaner years when margins were small and, hence, the industry will invest now for the future to reinforce new standards and new requirements.

The benefits are dependent on keeping Ireland free from ASF. As Ciaran Carroll points out vigilance is the key to preventing it from entering our country.

Adherence to strict biosecurity measures is a must for everyone. ASF can survive for a long time in pigmeat and can spread easily to pigs by feeding them food waste. He suggests this is possibly the biggest threat to the Irish herd.

If the Irish herd can remain clear of the disease then Michael McKeon suggests the longer-term outlook for the Chinese market (and therefore Irish pig prices), presuming the coronavirus is contained, is for pigmeat exports to China to continue to remain buoyant. The United States will increase its export volume substantially but the Irish pig price will remain high for the remainder of this year, thereby continuing to deliver high profitability.