The need for the UK government to change its approach to tariffs in the event of a no-deal Brexit is now the key lobbying focus for senior leaders within the NI agri-food industry. This is mirrored in Scotland, as farming unions continue to urge the government to prevent a no deal.

This week, farming consultants Andersons published a report which showed a fall in farm profitability of 18% in a no-deal scenario compared with only a 3% dip with a deal upon exiting the EU. The fall in income would equate to £850m across the UK, with the worst-affected sectors sheep, cereals, milk and beef.

Predictions of an 18% fall in UK farm incomes in the event of a no-deal from trusted analysts like Andersons underlines the genuine threat posed to Scotland’s farmers and crofters by this dreadful scenario

NFU Scotland director of policy Jonnie Hall said: “Predictions of an 18% fall in UK farm incomes in the event of a no-deal from trusted analysts like Andersons underlines the genuine threat posed to Scotland’s farmers and crofters by this dreadful scenario. NFU Scotland maintains its view, shared with other UK farming unions, that avoiding a no-deal outcome and any short-term economic or even social turmoil must be the political priority.”

Meanwhile the Farmers Journal understands that a document was put to Cabinet Minister Michael Gove on his recent visit to NI that questioned some of the calculations done by the British government, and outlined why the UK should adopt the same tariff schedule as the EU. It is understood that Gove agreed to look at the issue, and that political lobbying has also been intensified at Westminster.

The original plan, published in March, would see the UK implement tariffs across agricultural goods that are effectively about half that of the EU

According to industry sources, the original plan set out by the UK government would effectively sell the NI agri-food industry ‘down the river’, and would leave the UK with a weak negotiating hand when trying to secure any new trade agreements.

The original plan, published in March, would see the UK implement tariffs across agricultural goods that are effectively about half that of the EU. However, there is also a tariff-free quota of 230,000t for beef and 245,000t for poultry that could be accessed by any country, and a commitment from the UK that goods from the Republic of Ireland could cross into NI (and on to Britain) without any checks or tariffs.

According to the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU), the UK tariff plan would be “disastrous” for NI farming. It is only designed to be temporary (lasting for 12 months), but as one source pointed out, “income tax was initially meant to be temporary”.

Instead, the UFU has argued that the UK should adopt the same tariff schedule as the EU on food imports.