The December 2019 UK sheep outlook released by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) contains some noteworthy figures.
Throughput in the UK for the first five months of 2020 is forecast to decline by in the region of 265,000 head.
This consists of about 100,000 fewer 2019-born hoggets carried over into 2020 and 165,000 fewer early season lambs being available.
The lower figure for early-season lamb is being influenced by production predicted to fall back to normal levels after excellent lambing conditions and a reduction in the UK breeding flock.
Total throughput for 2020 is predicted to fall by 500,000 head to 12.5m, leaving supplies tighter right across the year.
The forecast tightness in supply is already having a marked influence on the trade with British prices rising significantly
Getting back to current market dynamics, the report predicts UK throughput for November and December 2019 is forecast to fall by 100,000 head with the kill for the two months predicted to stand at 2.3m head.
The forecast tightness in supply is already having a marked influence on the trade with British prices rising significantly in recent weeks and running at their highest level since 2011 for the time of year.
This price increase has also been beneficial to farmers in Ireland and Northern Ireland with an improved trading environment providing scope for prices to rise while also improving competitiveness and demand for sheepmeat in export markets.
2019 throughput
The reduced throughput forecast for November and December is stemming from a combination of a lower lamb crop in 2019 and sheep farmers pushing higher numbers onto the market earlier.
The latter was influenced by positive grass growth improving lamb performance, while Brexit cast a shadow over the sheep industry during 2019 with farmers fearful of a bad outcome capitalising on favourable lamb performance and pushing lambs onto the market in advance of the 31 October deadline.
The latest AHDB market update points in particular to a sharp increase in lamb throughput in October
The lamb kill in the third quarter increased by 4%, while the cull ewe and ram kill increased 9% delivering a collective increase in production of 6%.
The latest AHDB market update points in particular to a sharp increase in lamb throughput in October and a significant increase in under finished lambs with market concerns trumping lamb finish concerns.
This is reflected in Table 1 which shows throughput to-date in 2019, how it compares to 2018 and the five-year average and forecast production for the fourth quarter in 2019 and 2020.
Fears over Brexit have also resulted in a sharp increase in the cull ewe and ram kill in 2019, as detailed in Table 2.
This is predicted to fall back in 2020 provided the sheep sector is not damaged by Brexit. If it is affected, then the report highlights the potential of further sharp contraction in the UK breeding flock.
Production volumes
The increase in throughput is forecast to carry production to 303,800t, the highest level since the removal of headage payments.
It is not surprising that higher production is supporting higher exports.
Irish farmers are all too aware of this with higher volumes of UK sheepmeat available in the EU market at a lower price during the peak summer period and also putting intense pressure on the trade in Ireland.
Production and exports are forecast to fall sharply in 2020 as detailed in Table 3 with the breeding ewe flock expected to contract by 1% more to 13.9m head.
The 2020 lamb crop is forecast to fall by over 400,000 head to 16.6m.
A reduction to the tune of 14,300t of sheepmeat being available on the EU market will undoubtedly lead to increased demand, particularly with New Zealand sheepmeat exports continuing to fall.
In the longer term, the report points to the potential of imports recovering slightly
This is also the reason for UK sheepmeat imports predicted to fall from 73,500t in 2019 to 69,000t in 2020 with the influence of lower New Zealand supplies clear to see in UK imports falling sharply over the last three years.
In the longer term, the report points to the potential of imports recovering slightly.
It highlights Chinese demand easing slightly on the back of recovery from African swine fever, along with pigmeat production globally rising to meet Chinese demand as increasing the availability of sheepmeat on global markets.
It says, however, that imports are likely to remain at historically low levels.
Falling consumption
As detailed in Table 3, consumption is also assumed to follow a long-term tred in the UK of declining each year and if this occurs it will alleviate some of the tightness in supply.
A snapshot of this is discussed using Kantar data. In the 12 weeks ending 6 October, British retail sales of lamb declined by 2.5% in volume terms year-on-year. Higher retail prices meant the value declined by just 1%, however.
In the 52 weeks ending 6 October, volume sales fell by 2.2%. This is despite lamb sales performing favourably on the back of a recent AHDB campaign and increased promotional support.
This underpinned an increase in lamb volumes for the 20 weeks prior to 8 September with growth in roasting, diced, stewed and minced lamb outweighing chop declines.
Ready-to-cook lamb dishes also enjoyed growth during the summer months.
The forecasts are based on a favourable outcome from the next Brexit deadline of 31 January.
If the outcome goes against the sheep sector and market access is restricted, then the current shape of the UK sector will undoubtedly suffer massive changes.
UK lamb availability is forecast to drop by 265,000 head (100,000 hoggets and 165,000 lambs) in the first five months of 2020. Lower production will have a big effect on exports with total volumes reducing by over 14,000t to 79,100t. Imports are also set to fall on the back of a continued tightening in global sheepmeat supply.Consumption remains on a worrying downward trend. The outcome of Brexit has the ability to massively change these market forecasts.
The December 2019 UK sheep outlook released by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) contains some noteworthy figures.
Throughput in the UK for the first five months of 2020 is forecast to decline by in the region of 265,000 head.
This consists of about 100,000 fewer 2019-born hoggets carried over into 2020 and 165,000 fewer early season lambs being available.
The lower figure for early-season lamb is being influenced by production predicted to fall back to normal levels after excellent lambing conditions and a reduction in the UK breeding flock.
Total throughput for 2020 is predicted to fall by 500,000 head to 12.5m, leaving supplies tighter right across the year.
The forecast tightness in supply is already having a marked influence on the trade with British prices rising significantly
Getting back to current market dynamics, the report predicts UK throughput for November and December 2019 is forecast to fall by 100,000 head with the kill for the two months predicted to stand at 2.3m head.
The forecast tightness in supply is already having a marked influence on the trade with British prices rising significantly in recent weeks and running at their highest level since 2011 for the time of year.
This price increase has also been beneficial to farmers in Ireland and Northern Ireland with an improved trading environment providing scope for prices to rise while also improving competitiveness and demand for sheepmeat in export markets.
2019 throughput
The reduced throughput forecast for November and December is stemming from a combination of a lower lamb crop in 2019 and sheep farmers pushing higher numbers onto the market earlier.
The latter was influenced by positive grass growth improving lamb performance, while Brexit cast a shadow over the sheep industry during 2019 with farmers fearful of a bad outcome capitalising on favourable lamb performance and pushing lambs onto the market in advance of the 31 October deadline.
The latest AHDB market update points in particular to a sharp increase in lamb throughput in October
The lamb kill in the third quarter increased by 4%, while the cull ewe and ram kill increased 9% delivering a collective increase in production of 6%.
The latest AHDB market update points in particular to a sharp increase in lamb throughput in October and a significant increase in under finished lambs with market concerns trumping lamb finish concerns.
This is reflected in Table 1 which shows throughput to-date in 2019, how it compares to 2018 and the five-year average and forecast production for the fourth quarter in 2019 and 2020.
Fears over Brexit have also resulted in a sharp increase in the cull ewe and ram kill in 2019, as detailed in Table 2.
This is predicted to fall back in 2020 provided the sheep sector is not damaged by Brexit. If it is affected, then the report highlights the potential of further sharp contraction in the UK breeding flock.
Production volumes
The increase in throughput is forecast to carry production to 303,800t, the highest level since the removal of headage payments.
It is not surprising that higher production is supporting higher exports.
Irish farmers are all too aware of this with higher volumes of UK sheepmeat available in the EU market at a lower price during the peak summer period and also putting intense pressure on the trade in Ireland.
Production and exports are forecast to fall sharply in 2020 as detailed in Table 3 with the breeding ewe flock expected to contract by 1% more to 13.9m head.
The 2020 lamb crop is forecast to fall by over 400,000 head to 16.6m.
A reduction to the tune of 14,300t of sheepmeat being available on the EU market will undoubtedly lead to increased demand, particularly with New Zealand sheepmeat exports continuing to fall.
In the longer term, the report points to the potential of imports recovering slightly
This is also the reason for UK sheepmeat imports predicted to fall from 73,500t in 2019 to 69,000t in 2020 with the influence of lower New Zealand supplies clear to see in UK imports falling sharply over the last three years.
In the longer term, the report points to the potential of imports recovering slightly.
It highlights Chinese demand easing slightly on the back of recovery from African swine fever, along with pigmeat production globally rising to meet Chinese demand as increasing the availability of sheepmeat on global markets.
It says, however, that imports are likely to remain at historically low levels.
Falling consumption
As detailed in Table 3, consumption is also assumed to follow a long-term tred in the UK of declining each year and if this occurs it will alleviate some of the tightness in supply.
A snapshot of this is discussed using Kantar data. In the 12 weeks ending 6 October, British retail sales of lamb declined by 2.5% in volume terms year-on-year. Higher retail prices meant the value declined by just 1%, however.
In the 52 weeks ending 6 October, volume sales fell by 2.2%. This is despite lamb sales performing favourably on the back of a recent AHDB campaign and increased promotional support.
This underpinned an increase in lamb volumes for the 20 weeks prior to 8 September with growth in roasting, diced, stewed and minced lamb outweighing chop declines.
Ready-to-cook lamb dishes also enjoyed growth during the summer months.
The forecasts are based on a favourable outcome from the next Brexit deadline of 31 January.
If the outcome goes against the sheep sector and market access is restricted, then the current shape of the UK sector will undoubtedly suffer massive changes.
UK lamb availability is forecast to drop by 265,000 head (100,000 hoggets and 165,000 lambs) in the first five months of 2020. Lower production will have a big effect on exports with total volumes reducing by over 14,000t to 79,100t. Imports are also set to fall on the back of a continued tightening in global sheepmeat supply.Consumption remains on a worrying downward trend. The outcome of Brexit has the ability to massively change these market forecasts. 
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