EU milk output is expected to decline by 0.2% per year out to 2035 due to increasing sustainability demands on farmers, while at the same time, global production will grow 1.6% each year.

The European Commission’s 2023 agricultural outlook report forecasts the EU’s dairy exports to remain stable over this timeframe, but regions facing “less strict sustainability constraints” could increase production and boost exports.

The US in particular is earmarked as being poised to increase exports in the sector, although the EU and New Zealand are still forecast to remain the world’s largest dairy exporters, accounting for just under a quarter of global exports apiece, by 2035.

The EU is the only region reported as being set to experience a decline in output, although New Zealand is expected to see growth in production slow to a fraction of what it has been for the past decade.

Stricter environmental and animal welfare policies could shrink the EU’s dairy herd by 13% over the next 12 years, the report estimates. This equates to one in eight fewer cows being milked by 2035.

Central and eastern European countries are in a position to grow milk output until 2035, while the 14 other member states will see their combined milk deliveries fall by 6.5% by this time.

The rate at which per cow yield grows across the EU is anticipated to fall to half its current pace, not being sufficient to counteract the output lost by falling cow numbers.