Global wheat futures prices increased over the past week in response to a number of factors.

Reduced planted area in Europe was obviously one factor, but the greater influence has been concerns around the ongoing harvest in Argentina.

Wheat yields in some regions there are reported to be down by over 30%. It had been envisaged that Argentina would supply the shortfall from Australia to the Asian market, but this supply may now be limited.

While market sentiment will rightly respond more to harvest yields, the problem with wheat drilling in Europe adds to concerns about next year’s supply. These factors combined are now helping both futures and physical old-crop prices, especially in Europe, according to the AHDB market report.

That said, Chicago maize futures are not following wheat upwards and this could quickly see feed wheat undercut by cheaper maize imports once again. US Chicago corn futures have remained broadly flat, while its May wheat futures have increased by over $30/t since the start of September.

The report warns that the 2019 cereal harvest was big in the northern hemisphere and this must be used. And the Black Sea region has planted more acres for 2020.

Native prices have also increased, with nearby wheat now up around €190 to €192/t and barley in the €178 to €180/t bracket to the trade. However, some end users are offering €200+ for wheat currently.