The make-up of the 2023 sheep kill differs significantly from recent years.

Hogget throughput of 986,958 head is running in excess of 80,000 higher than in 2022 and some 150,000 higher than the five-year average. It is the highest level of throughput recorded for well over a decade.

The higher hogget kill in recent years, as detailed in Table1, is somewhat reflective of changing lambing trends with early lamb production in decline and an increasing number of later lambing flocks.

This in turn is giving rise to a greater carryover of lambs, with hoggets now dominating throughput for the first five to six months of the year.

This compares with a decade ago when hogget throughput declined sharply after the first quarter of the year.

Lower lamb kill

The lamb kill to date in 2023 is in sharp contrast to the hogget kill, with throughput of 1.3m head running over 75,000 head lower than the corresponding period in 2022.

Lamb throughput has trended well below 2022 for much of the year and has only surpassed the levels recorded 12 months ago in recent weeks.

A number of factors are contributing to lower throughput levels. There is a continued decline in early lambing, with lower numbers compounded by a lower litter size - this being a knock-on consequence of drought in the east of the country in 2022.

This was followed by higher levels of lamb mortality in mid-season lambing flocks, while lamb performance in 2023 has been curtailed by inclement weather, reduced fertiliser use lowering grass growth and higher concentrate prices limiting supplementary feeding.

2023 throughput forecast

There has been many queries of late as to the likely level of hogget throughput in the first half of 2024.

Predictions differ greatly on this subject, with little information available to accurately influence future forecasts.

The only source of information available is from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) preliminary results of the June 2023 census of agriculture.

The census recorded a 15,900 head (0.3%) increase in total sheep numbers compared with June 2022, with 5,983,500 sheep on farms.

Breeding sheep decreased by 86,700 (-2.8%) and this trend tallies with the results from the Department of Agriculture’s annual sheep census.

Higher numbers

The category ‘other sheep’, which includes lambs, non-breeding hoggets and cull ewes for slaughter, increased by 102,600 head.

This would convey that there is a higher number of lambs on farm and given that lamb throughput has been running at a lower level since June would insinuate that there will be a greater carryover of lambs into 2024.

However, many predictions from industry, including producer groups, point to tighter numbers, with groups handling lower numbers and reports from its members citing numbers are back on the previous year.

In contrast, hill sheep numbers could be higher, with poor lamb performance curtailing throughput to date.

As such, it is hard to accurately predict throughput in early 2024. The figures point to higher numbers of lambs in the system, but farmer feedback contradicts this.

A preliminary analysis of the Department’s 2023 sheep and goat census would shed light on this area and would be a useful tool in gauging supplies.

Ewe and ram kill

You would be forgiven for thinking throughput of cull ewes and rams has soared in 2023, such has been the high level of reports of ewes being culled and flocks cutting numbers.

However, this is not evident in the sheep throughput figure, with the ewe and ram kill to date in 2023 running in the region of 50,000 head lower.

This figure underestimates the number of ewes culled, with a vibrant live export trade for ewes apparent in the first half of the year, while significant numbers of ewes have also been slaughtered in abattoirs where the figures do not feed directly in to the sheep kill.

These figures will be accounted for at year end, but even with this, it is unlikely that it will make up the 50,000 head drop in throughput experienced.