The speed at which the EU’s sheep flock declines is expected to slow over the coming years, having taken a 12% tumble over the past 10 years.

The 2023 EU agricultural outlook report foresees a 0.3% fall in sheep and goat meat output per year foreseen out to 2035, despite coupled supports and favourable prices.

Imports of sheepmeat into the EU are expected to grow by almost 14% over this time as per-capita consumption is to remain relatively stable.

EU sheep prices are forecast to continue falling from their highs in 2022 until 2025, after which prices should continue trending upwards for the next 10 years to reach around €7.70/kg.

However, the impact of the UK’s trade with Australia and New Zealand has not been factored into the price and export outlook.