The most recent estimates suggest that the wet weather in the autumn of 2019 will result in a 13% reduction in UK winter wheat area, and a significant increase in spring barley (by up to 28%).
Speaking at this week’s joint Ulster Arable Society, UFU and CAFRE conference held at Greenmount, Ben Fraser, a senior trader at W&R Barnett, said that markets are reacting, with London futures prices for wheat seeing sharp increases over the past month.
If prices for barley are to go higher, it would need a maintained weather problem somewhere in the world
However, with the prospect that the UK barley crop in 2020 could be the highest in 30 years, it will potentially have a negative impact on prices.
“If prices for barley are to go higher, it would need a maintained weather problem somewhere in the world, that would hit the corn (maize) market,” suggested Fraser.
It is an average trend, so it doesn’t mean it will happen every year
During his presentation, he also analysed 10-year trends in local prices, highlighting that prices tend to be at their lowest in August and September before rising in the October to January period.
“It is an average trend, so it doesn’t mean it will happen every year, but if you are seller you probably want to sell as little as you can at harvest, but obviously, if you are a buyer, you want to buy as much as you can at that time,” said Fraser.
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In NI, given that it has a significant grain deficit (only 29,800ha of cereals grown), and a large livestock industry (1.4mt of grain required in the market each year), Fraser said that prices here tend to be around £10/t ahead of Britain.
There is a yield reduction, but you would get it from the fields
But with a wetter climate in NI, the harvest window can be limited.
To extend that window, Dr Lisa Black from AFBI said that the focus for plant breeders and farmers should move towards using earlier-maturing varieties.
“There is a yield reduction, but you would get it from the fields,” she suggested.
She also believes that increasing the crop area in NI could be part of wider solution around sustainability, given the ability of crops to use up nutrients from animal agriculture. A new DAERA funded AFBI study in collaboration with CAFRE, the UAS and UFU is to evaluate the impact of a range of animal manures on spring barley.
We can’t be at a disadvantage to the Republic of Ireland
In his keynote address at the arable conference, UFU president Ivor Ferguson outlined his disappointment that NI did not introduce payments for protein crops in 2016, in line with that available in the Republic of Ireland (€350/ha for beans, peas or lupins).
“Going forward with Brexit, we can’t let that happen again – we can’t be at a disadvantage to the Republic of Ireland – it is a point we have made to DAERA,” said Ferguson.
He also highlighted his concern about the future for agricultural support payments, emphasising that there must be continuation of at least some form of area-based payment, targeted at active farmers.
“We want the money going to active farmers, not our landlords,” he said.
Part of the audience who attended the Annual Arable Conference hosted by CAFRE, UAS and UFU at Greenmount Campus, Co Antrim. \ Houston Green
Consumers
When asked about competing pressures on government budgets, Ferguson maintained he had no problem justifying payments, given that it is consumers who ultimately benefit.
“Every country in the world pays farmers – even New Zealand has some support when you look at it very closely.”
Brexit
The other big issue for farm organisations is post-Brexit trade standards, with the UK unions preparing to descend on Westminster at the end of March to highlight the issue.
“If product doesn’t meet our Red Tractor standards, it shouldn’t be allowed in,” suggested Ferguson.
On potential tax breaks for landlords who enter long-term leases (as available in the Republic of Ireland), he said that the union has asked Jeremy Moody from the central association of agricultural valuers (CAAV) to make a case to the UK government.
Re-approval process for glyphosate
Work has begun on the next tranche of EU authorisation for glyphosate (beyond 2022), and while the active continues to draw controversy over its alleged link to cancer, the scientific evidence for its safety remains robust, maintained Bayer Crop Science’s Mark Buckingham.
He told farmers to expect a big political debate to emerge again on the issue in around 18 months.
He also warned that if the EU decided to restrict the use of glyphosate in the future, it would be a strong reason for the UK to do the same, irrespective of Brexit.
“Global science (which generally suggests the product is safe) is our strongest card”, he said.
Read more
Listen: EU re-approval process for glyphosate kicks off - here’s the timeline
Northern Ireland cropping area in numbers – 1922-2019
The most recent estimates suggest that the wet weather in the autumn of 2019 will result in a 13% reduction in UK winter wheat area, and a significant increase in spring barley (by up to 28%).
Speaking at this week’s joint Ulster Arable Society, UFU and CAFRE conference held at Greenmount, Ben Fraser, a senior trader at W&R Barnett, said that markets are reacting, with London futures prices for wheat seeing sharp increases over the past month.
If prices for barley are to go higher, it would need a maintained weather problem somewhere in the world
However, with the prospect that the UK barley crop in 2020 could be the highest in 30 years, it will potentially have a negative impact on prices.
“If prices for barley are to go higher, it would need a maintained weather problem somewhere in the world, that would hit the corn (maize) market,” suggested Fraser.
It is an average trend, so it doesn’t mean it will happen every year
During his presentation, he also analysed 10-year trends in local prices, highlighting that prices tend to be at their lowest in August and September before rising in the October to January period.
“It is an average trend, so it doesn’t mean it will happen every year, but if you are seller you probably want to sell as little as you can at harvest, but obviously, if you are a buyer, you want to buy as much as you can at that time,” said Fraser.
Premium
In NI, given that it has a significant grain deficit (only 29,800ha of cereals grown), and a large livestock industry (1.4mt of grain required in the market each year), Fraser said that prices here tend to be around £10/t ahead of Britain.
There is a yield reduction, but you would get it from the fields
But with a wetter climate in NI, the harvest window can be limited.
To extend that window, Dr Lisa Black from AFBI said that the focus for plant breeders and farmers should move towards using earlier-maturing varieties.
“There is a yield reduction, but you would get it from the fields,” she suggested.
She also believes that increasing the crop area in NI could be part of wider solution around sustainability, given the ability of crops to use up nutrients from animal agriculture. A new DAERA funded AFBI study in collaboration with CAFRE, the UAS and UFU is to evaluate the impact of a range of animal manures on spring barley.
We can’t be at a disadvantage to the Republic of Ireland
In his keynote address at the arable conference, UFU president Ivor Ferguson outlined his disappointment that NI did not introduce payments for protein crops in 2016, in line with that available in the Republic of Ireland (€350/ha for beans, peas or lupins).
“Going forward with Brexit, we can’t let that happen again – we can’t be at a disadvantage to the Republic of Ireland – it is a point we have made to DAERA,” said Ferguson.
He also highlighted his concern about the future for agricultural support payments, emphasising that there must be continuation of at least some form of area-based payment, targeted at active farmers.
“We want the money going to active farmers, not our landlords,” he said.
Part of the audience who attended the Annual Arable Conference hosted by CAFRE, UAS and UFU at Greenmount Campus, Co Antrim. \ Houston Green
Consumers
When asked about competing pressures on government budgets, Ferguson maintained he had no problem justifying payments, given that it is consumers who ultimately benefit.
“Every country in the world pays farmers – even New Zealand has some support when you look at it very closely.”
Brexit
The other big issue for farm organisations is post-Brexit trade standards, with the UK unions preparing to descend on Westminster at the end of March to highlight the issue.
“If product doesn’t meet our Red Tractor standards, it shouldn’t be allowed in,” suggested Ferguson.
On potential tax breaks for landlords who enter long-term leases (as available in the Republic of Ireland), he said that the union has asked Jeremy Moody from the central association of agricultural valuers (CAAV) to make a case to the UK government.
Re-approval process for glyphosate
Work has begun on the next tranche of EU authorisation for glyphosate (beyond 2022), and while the active continues to draw controversy over its alleged link to cancer, the scientific evidence for its safety remains robust, maintained Bayer Crop Science’s Mark Buckingham.
He told farmers to expect a big political debate to emerge again on the issue in around 18 months.
He also warned that if the EU decided to restrict the use of glyphosate in the future, it would be a strong reason for the UK to do the same, irrespective of Brexit.
“Global science (which generally suggests the product is safe) is our strongest card”, he said.
Read more
Listen: EU re-approval process for glyphosate kicks off - here’s the timeline
Northern Ireland cropping area in numbers – 1922-2019
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