Given the hype around China, Irish prospects in that newly reopened market was an obvious starting point for my discussion with GIRA Consulting's Rupert Claxton on the fringes of the Bord Bia meat marketing seminar last week.

He was particularly impressed with the speed of lifting the suspension and that “it sends a very strong signal about how China are now viewing atypical BSE”.

As for doing business in 2024, Rupert is of the view that it won't have a dramatic impact on volumes because in the first half of the year at least, China has economic problems due to being “later than the rest of us getting over COVID-19”.

Chinese consumers aren’t “flocking back to beef”, as it is an expensive meat and “pork production is high and providing a value alternative”.

The Irish Farmers Journal asked Rupert if Ireland had missed the boat with China given the massive growth in beef imports between 2012 and 2022.

He accepted that Ireland - through nobody’s fault - had missed the early rapid development of China’s beef imports.

However, on a more positive note, he said that GIRA is of the view that there is more growth potential left in China for beef whenever the current economic slowdown passes.

GIRA is forecasting that China’s demand for beef imports will grow further between now and the end of this decade.

Brazil

When it was put to him that, as in the past, Brazil can readily step up production and supply any extra demand that comes in the next few years, Rupert pushed back hard.

He said: “They are at the top of their production cycle at the moment and that there is discussion ongoing about how much more land they could really take into production or whether or not beef is the best use for any additional land.”

He went on to suggest that “it may be more profitable to dedicate any extra land to grain production and either export it or increase their chicken production”.

As for Ireland’s slow progress in developing other Asian markets, particularly Japan, Rupert puts this down to: “The US and Australia being really well established in these markets that have shown little growth recently and it isn’t easy to displace them.

"On South Korea, while there is delight in Ireland at getting it opened, we shouldn’t expect major volumes to be exported there in the immediate future."

Threats to UK market

Rupert had already flagged the Australia and New Zealand trade deals with the UK as creation of extra competition for Irish beef and sheepmeat exports and the Irish Farmers Journal asked him to make an attempt at quantifying this.

He explained that just as Irish beef is seen as interchangeable with British beef, so too is New Zealand lamb. He envisages that Australia may displace some New Zealand lamb in the UK, as they haven’t been filling their quota due to the strength of Asian markets, particularly China.

As for beef, Rupert believes that the presence of Australian product will be “used more in price negotiation rather than volume sales. There is a long lead-in time with deliveries from Australia for certified hormone-free beef that has to come from 493 hormone-free feedlots that are eligible to supply the UK.”